NBA teams have a natural life cycle. They search for star players, build a roster to contend, and eventually face the time to start over again.

The Golden State Warriors are hoping to skip the down part of their cycle, holding onto young players like James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody while still trying to win with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. In recent years, the Houston Rockets traded away star players like Chris Paul and James Harden and embraced the rebuild.

Using the tier list of Sports Business Classroom instructor Dan Purcell, teams are generally in one of five stages:

  • Rebuild
  • Restructure
  • Continued Growth
  • Complementing Current Core
  • Contention

A disconnect can come when a franchise believes it’s ready for contention when it’s not quite there. But then injuries or other unforeseen factors can set a team back a tier. Some make quick leaps, like the rebuilding Dallas Mavericks acquiring Luka Doncic in the 2018 NBA Draft.

While it’s subjective, the following is one perspective on where each of the 30 teams stood before the start of the season. Some are higher in the standings than they may have expected—others may be lower.

Rebuild

The rebuilding franchise is more likely to sell off veteran contracts in trade, acquire picks, young players and even take on other team’s unwanted salary (for even more draft or youthful considerations). These are generally teams searching for their next cornerstone player and are unlikely to spend significant money in free agency until they bottom out.

The Houston Rockets are in a strong position heading into the draft with one of the worst records in the league and the potential to add a player like Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson. In the meantime, the team is working to develop Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun.

Other teams focused on rebuilding heading into the 2022-23 season include the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs.

Restructure

After trading All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gay for multiple first-round picks, the Utah Jazz may have looked like a rebuilding franchise. But Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton have lengthy contracts, and the team brought on veteran Kelly Olynyk from the Pistons to better balance the roster. The team isn’t starting from scratch or bottoming out, and a case could be made for Markkanen as an All-Star.

The Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets looked like two teams headed in different directions. The Magic may have added a core piece in No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero. The team has a lot of talent, but it’s not entirely clear which players are the ones that will stick for the long haul.

The Hornets lost a key piece in Miles Bridges, who could not re-sign because of a domestic abuse arrest. The team did not look to trade off veterans and may have viewed itself as a team continuing to grow. But the Magic may be closer to the next stage, and the Hornets might be heading for a rebuild.

The Oklahoma Thunder could be a step ahead of the Magic with investments in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort. The team also has important pieces in guard Josh Giddey and center Chet Holmgren (out for the season with a foot injury). The Thunder have a war chest of draft capital for when it’s time to go after a veteran star via trade—and maybe the team belongs in the next tier, but the Holmgren injury may have delayed matters for a season.

Similarly, the Indiana Pacers have a core piece in Tyrese Haliburton. They are either restructuring to find the right key partners or advancing into the continued growth phase, where the team has a few foundational pieces to build around. That may be a bit premature, but Indiana’s results midway through the season have been positive.

 

Continued Growth

The Washington Wizards are in the middle tier, but it’s only continued growth if the roster continues to grow. The Wizards have three primary scorers in Bradley Beal, Kristasps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma, but since both Porzingis and Kuzma can leave as free agents after 2022-23, the Wizards’ path is a little murkier.

The New York Knicks made a big play by signing guard Jalen Brunson. Perhaps the team has its core with Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Brunson. if so, then perhaps the team is up a tier, looking to complement that group. But until that’s clear, pencil the Knicks as a team looking for continued growth until the opportunity comes to bolster with additional star power.

The Sacramento Kings acquired Domantas Sabonis last season from the Pacers, have a dynamic guard in De’Aaron Fox and drafted a polished rookie in Keegan Murray. The team makes more sense than it has in recent years and may be moving into the next tier with a productive season.

Complementing Current Core

Teams on the verge of contention are opportunistically looking for just one or two more key players to make that jump. Those recently in contention may dip down and retool briefly—or drop down to rebuild. Others who may have thought they would be in contention but are not may have difficult decisions ahead.

The New Orleans Pelicans added CJ McCollum from the Portland Trail Blazers last year, and New Orleans took a significant step forward. The Blazers went from restructuring last year (with Damian Lillard out with injury) to looking for a piece or two to be a contender after adding Jerami Grant. The Pelicans, who have younger stars, seem better positioned for the future.

Similar to the Pelicans, the Memphis Grizzlies may already be a contender. The team is young, talented and well-built behind star guard Ja Morant. Thus far, the team has been patient in chasing big names on larger contracts, preferring to develop its impressive young core. The Dallas Mavericks are hoping to put the right talent around Luka Doncic.

Some have more of a contention approach but aren’t quite contenders. The Los Angeles Lakers have yet to stay healthy or find the right combination of players since their title in 2020. Similarly, the Miami Heat are trying to get back to the Finals. The Atlanta Hawks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Chicago Bulls have taken steps to be contenders in recent years, trading away significant draft capital. But none looked like a contender on paper heading into the season.

The Toronto Raptors were relatively conservative in moves over the summer. Based on its contracts (and who will be free agents in 2023 and 2024), the team may end up doubling down and looking for a final piece or restructuring around Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes.

Contention

Teams in contention are looking to make the final moves to push the roster over the top and are typically buyers at the deadline. They’re also the most likely to pay luxury taxes and trade away draft considerations to get that done. Some can win with a lower payroll without sacrificing picks, though eventually, those players will need compensation for sustained success.

The obvious contenders are the Boston Celtics and Warriors, last year’s NBA finals opponents. The Brooklyn Nets decided to stick with its roster over the summer despite a Kevin Durant trade demand, hoping that winning would cure all. Others expecting big things include the Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns, Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Clippers.

The Cleveland Cavaliers put their money in the pot by sending significant draft capital to the Jazz for Donovan Mitchell. Perhaps contention is a bit early for the team, but the team seems more polished than those trying to complement its core.

With only four teams making the conference finals, not every team that believes it’s a contender will get as far in the postseason as hoped.

Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @EricPincus.