[The following scouting report is part of a series on potential 2025 draft prospects from Sports Business Classroom alumni.]

Ace Bailey
Frame: 6’8″, 200 lbs
Position: Wing
Team: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2025 Draft Age: 18
Stats via www.sports-reference.com

Offense

Bailey flashed tremendous upside as a shot maker on the wing, hitting 34.6 percent on 136 attempts from three (76.6 percent assisted)—his high release results in a high-arching shot that is hard for defenders to contest. Bailey has a quick trigger and can get shots up in a hurry. He does a good job navigating off screens and squaring up his feet and rising off the catch, but is prone to taking ill-advised shots, specifically off the dribble, due to his inconsistent handle; he can lose the ball or fail to create meaningful separation, and opt to take a contested attempt. 

Attacking off the catch is a key part of Bailey’s game; he excels at ripping through under defenders and attacking for a pull-up. On the season, Bailey shot 46.0 percent on 200 attempts (27.2 percent assisted). Generally, more is less with Bailey. He often finds success when he attacks, relies on one to two dribbles, and pulls up. However, he struggles when he puts defenders on his back and uses multiple dribbles. 

Bailey’s playmaking and overall decision-making need massive improvement to be a star player at the next level. He averaged 1.3 assists to 2.0 turnovers, with an assist percentage of 8.3 percent, and a turnover percentage of 13.4 percent this past season. When Bailey has been tasked with operating as a ball handler and trying to create for teammates, it has gone extremely poorly; he doesn’t have a good feel for the passes he makes, whether he mistimes them or misses passing lanes entirely. His inconsistent handle makes it harder to keep his dribble alive and wait for teammates to get open. 

Another area of struggle for Bailey is finishing at the basket, shooting 61.0 percent on 105 attempts (53.1 percent assisted) at the rim. Bailey has a high center of gravity, which, combined with being relatively thin, leads to him being pushed off his path by stronger defenders. He is a better finisher with his right hand than his left and is inconsistent in finishing amongst traffic. At times, he uses his length to drive with authority and has powerful flushes over big men; other times, he double clutches and has his shot altered by a defender. He doesn’t do a great job cutting or moving around the basket without the ball, but his production should improve as he adds strength and gets older. 

 

Defense

Bailey has shown some prowess as an on-ball defender, using his size and lateral quickness to keep offensive players in front of him. He can be overly aggressive at times, averaging 2.8 fouls per game, but with more development, he can be a real piece as a perimeter defender if he can tone down the fouling. This typically occurs when he is faced with a shifty guard or just a strong wing, where he can be beaten off the dribble or overpowered, which results in him overusing his hands. He isn’t much of a defender against bigger players due to his frame as is, but his length can provide some contention when he goes upright. 

Bailey tends to struggle with consistency as an off-ball defender, as it is common for him to fall asleep and lose his man. He often has trouble navigating off-ball actions, which results in an advantage for the offense. As a strong side defender, he has shown some ability to jump passes, but isn’t much of a threat in that department. He has the occasional weak side block, where you see his potential, but it isn’t on display enough. On the season, Bailey averaged 1.0 steals and 1.3 blocks, with a steal percentage of 1.7 percent and a block percentage of 4.1 percent. He has shown potential as a defensive rebounder, with 5.1 of his 7.2 rebounds coming on the defensive side, where he can use his frame to out-reach players for the ball. 

Looking Ahead

Bailey is an intriguing prospect. With the proper development, his perimeter shot-making on the wing and defensive tools could blossom into an impact two-way wing. However, his decision-making and willingness to buy into a role will determine how much Bailey will contribute to winning at the highest levels. 

Bailey is expected to be a top-four pick in the 2025 NBA draft and projects to have the floor of a rotation player, with the potential of a high-level starter and possibly more.