The NBA will hold its draft lottery on May 17, and the field of 14 teams is nearly set. The lottery determines the fate of a franchise, but the worst record doesn’t mean the top pick is a lock.

The Houston Rockets (20-62) earned that distinction but only have a 14 percent chance at No. 1. The good news for Houston fans is that the team won’t drop lower than fifth (though the odds of a top-four pick are only slightly more favorable at 52.14 percent).

It helps that the 2022 NBA Draft projects to have a lot of talent at the top, including prospects like Jabari Smith (Auburn), Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga), Paolo Banchero (Duke), Jaden Ivey (Purdue), Keegan Murray (Iowa) and Shaedon Sharpe (Kentucky).

The following table shows each team’s odds at a top-four pick:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top-4
Houston Rockets 14.0% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 52.14%
Orlando Magic 14.0% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 52.14%
Detroit Pistons 14.0% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 52.14%
Oklahoma City Thunder 12.5% 12.23% 11.89% 11.46% 48.08%
Indiana Pacers 10.5% 10.54% 10.56% 10.53% 42.13%
Portland Trail Blazers 9.0% 9.2% 9.41% 9.62% 37.23%
Sacramento Kings 7.5% 7.8% 8.14% 8.52% 31.96%
New Orleans Pelicans (via Los Angeles Lakers) 6.0% 6.34% 6.74% 7.22% 26.3%
San Antonio Spurs 4.5% 4.83% 5.23% 5.71% 20.27%
Washington Wizards 3.0% 3.27% 3.6% 4.01% 13.88%
New York Knicks 2.0% 2.2% 2.45% 2.76% 9.41%
Oklahoma City Thunder (via Los Angeles Clippers) 1.5% 1.66% 1.86% 2.1% 7.12%
Charlotte Hornets 1.0% 1.11% 1.25% 1.43% 4.79%
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.50% 0.56% 0.63% 0.72% 2.41%

Only four teams win the lottery, but what about the rest? What would an unsuccessful result be for each franchise?

Team Possibilities
Houston Rockets 5th – 47.86%
Orlando Magic 5th – 27.84% 6th 20.02%
Detroit Pistons 5th – 14.84% 6th 26.0% 7th 7.02%
Oklahoma City Thunder 5th – 7.24% 6th 25.74% 7th 16.74% 8th 2.19%
Indiana Pacers 5th – 2.22% 6th 19.61% 7th 26.74% 8th 8.68% 9th 0.62%
Portland Trail Blazers 6th – 8.62% 7th 29.77% 8th 20.55% 9th 3.68% 10th 0.15%
Sacramento Kings 7th – 19.72% 8th 34.11% 9th 12.88% 10th 1.3% 11th 0.03%
New Orleans Pelicans* 8th – 34.47% 9th 32.1% 10th 6.75% 11th 0.38% 12th < 0.01%
San Antonio Spurs 9th – 50.72% 10th 25.9% 11th 3.01% 12th 0.09% 13th < 0.01%
Washington Wizards 10th – 65.9% 11th 18.99% 12th 1.2% 13th 0.02% 14th < 0.01%
New York Knicks 11th – 77.59% 12th 12.6% 13th 0.4% 14th < 0.01%
Oklahoma City Thunder 12th – 86.10% 13th 6.7% 14th 0.07%
Charlotte Hornets 13th – 92.88% 14th 2.34%
Cleveland Cavaliers 14th – 97.59%

* If the Los Angeles Lakers’ selection, expected to go to the Pelicans, drops to 11 or 12, it will convey to the Memphis Grizzlies instead.

The remaining (playoff) teams will pick in reverse order based on standings:

Team Pick
New Orleans (to Hornets) 15
Atlanta 16
Brooklyn Nets (to Rockets) 17
Chicago Bulls 18
Minnesota Timberwolves 19
Toronto Raptors (to Spurs) 20
Denver Nuggets 21
Utah Jazz (to Memphis) 22
Philadelphia 76ers (may go to Nets) 23
Milwaukee Bucks 24
Boston Celtics (to Spurs) 25
Dallas Mavericks 26
Miami Heat 27
Golden State Warriors 28
Memphis Grizzlies 29
Phoenix Suns (to Thunder) 30

Note: If the Pelicans make the playoffs, their first will go to the Hornets. If the Cavaliers make the playoffs, their first will go to the Pacers.

Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter, @EricPincus.

Note: Revised for final play-in results and tiebreaker results.