NBA Revises 2022-23 Salary Cap Projections Again

For the second time this season, the NBA raised its salary cap projection for the 2022-23 season. After an initial estimate of $119 million, the league revised the figure to $121 million in February before pushing it to $122 million on March 31. The luxury tax threshold was also lifted to $149 million (initially $145 million).

The league is clearly rebounding well from two challenging seasons through the pandemic. The actual salary cap won’t be announced until the end of June, but it can’t climb much higher than the new projection. Cooperating to get through the pandemic, the National Basketball Player Association (NBPA) and NBA agreed to limit cap growth years-to-year at no more than 10 percent, or $123.7 million. The most recent projection is an 8.5 percent jump, nearly the maximum allowed.

The salary cap will impact several important figures heading into the 2022 offseason.

Maximum salaries (based on the players’ years of service in the league) will rise (by the same 8.5 percent):

Minimum salaries would similarly climb:

Note: the NBA reimburses teams for the amount over the two YOS veteran minimum, provided the contract is a one-year minimum deal. In those cases, the player will count against the cap at the two YOS minimum, which would also be their outgoing salary in trade.

The following exceptions will also climb with the cap:

Teams below the salary cap will have access to just the Room Mid-Level Exception (RMLE). Those who do not drop under the salary cap but stay below the NBA’s hard cap (or apron) can use the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level (NTMLE) and Bi-Annual (BAE) Exceptions. Tax teams above the apron will only have the Taxpayer Mid-Level (TMLE)

With a luxury tax projection at $149 million, the apron (hard cap) projects to reach $155,671,000. At 90 percent of the cap, the minimum team salary would be $109,800,000.

Additionally, rookie-scale contracts (for the top-30 draft picks in June) will climb proportionately. The scale amount for the No. 1 pick would be $9,089,300, though it’s nearly a standard for players drafted in the first round to earn the maximum 120 percent of scale. The following table shows the projected rookie-scale salaries (at 120 percent) for the 2022 draft class:

Additionally, the amount of cash that teams can use in trade projects to climb from the current figure of $5,785,000. A franchise will be able to send out as much as $6,278,000 from July 2022 to June 30, 2023. A team can also receive the same amount via trade, regardless of how much it sends out throughout the 2022-23 season.