As the first round of the playoffs near a conclusion, most of the NBA has shifted focus to the draft. The lottery to decide the order of the first 14 picks will be held on May 17.

Using the pre-lottery order, Sports Business Classroom alumni Ari Eizen, Ron Gutterman, and Aaron Pearlstein simulated a mock draft. The following are the lottery results with Part II breaking down picks 15-30.

No. 1: Houston Rockets | Record: 20-62   

The Rockets finished year two post-Harden era at the bottom of the league.  Jalen Green (No. 2 in 2021) overcame a slow start to finish strong (22.1 on 56.5 effective field goal percent after the All-Star break). Alperen Sengun (No. 16 in 2021) was also solid as a rookie. While Green was the standout with the potential to be an elite NBA scorer, the Rockets need to get him some help.

Jabari Smith Jr., Freshman, Auburn

Pairing Green with Smith should give the Rockets a dynamic, dangerous duo. Smith already can make shots from all areas of the court. He’s an active defender, a glaring team weakness. Smith needs to add strength, but that’s normal for an 18-year old (he’ll turn 19 by the June 23 draft day) – AE

No. 2: Orlando Magic | Record: 22-60   

The Magic are high in the lottery for the second-straight year. The franchise will add a key piece to last year’s first-rounders in Jalen Suggs (No. 5) and standout Franz Wagner (No. 8).  This offseason, the team will need to decide on free agents Mo Bamba (potentially restricted) and Gary Harris. The team has a lot of work ahead, especially on the offensive end. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder posted a lower adjusted offensive rating, per Dunks and Threes.

Paolo Banchero, Freshman, Duke

Some of Banchero’s skills overlap Wagner’s, but the magic should be thrilled to have both on the roster. With Banchero’s natural scoring talent and defensive upside,  alongside Wagner, Suggs, Cole Anthony, and Markelle Fultz, the Magic have an exciting young group to rebuild around. – RG 

No. 3: Detroit Pistons | Record: 23-59   

The Pistons started slowly (5-28) with No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham scoring an inefficient 15.3 PPG on 38 percent shooting from the field and 31 percent from three-point range. The team started to find its footing by the All-Star break. In March,  Cunningham averaged 22.9 points with 7.0 assists and 5.9 boards per game. Per StatMuse, he was the first rookie to put up these numbers in a month since Michael Jordan. Second-year players Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killan Hayes also took steps forward. The team could add another foundational piece in the draft.

Chet Holmgren, Freshman, Gonzaga

Holmgren is easily the best player on the board. He recently finished a stellar season where he showcased his ability to be an elite rim protector while also being a three-level threat on the offensive side. His ability to space the floor and initiate transition would be a perfect asset next to Cunningham and Bey. Holmgren could help fast-track the rebuild in Detroit – AP

No. 4: Oklahoma City Thunder | Record: 24-58   

The Thunder committed to the rebuild and gave their young players time to grow and improve. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rookie Josh Giddey are clear standouts, but the team needs to add more talent. In his recent exit interview, General Manager Sam Presti recently commented (H/T Welcome to Loud City) on how the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement (potentially after the 2022-23 season) would influence the league’s landscape. He seems to be focused on patience, even if that means another year or two of development.

Shadeon Sharpe, Freshman, Kentucky

The top-three prospects may stand out in the draft, but Oklahoma City gets an enticing prospect in Sharpe at No. 4. Sharpe, who did not play throughout his lone season at Kentucky, could fit well as a frontcourt playmaker complementing Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey in the backcourt. He’s only 19-years old with incredible athleticism, and the Thunder can afford to be patient. – AE

No. 5: Indiana Pacers | Record: 25-57   

The Pacers had greater expectations for the 2021-22 season, but injuries were overwhelming. The team eventually traded away core players like Domantas Sabonis, Caris LeVert and Justin Holiday–but adding Tyrese Haliburton from the Sacramento Kings was a big win. Now, Indiana has a top-five pick and the chance to improve significantly after a quick re-tool. 

Jaden Ivey, Sophomore, Purdue

Ivey is arguably the most dynamic guard in the draft. After a lackluster freshman season, Ivey made the necessary improvements to become an elite offensive guard capable of scoring at all three levels. Ivey will need to show he can compete on the defensive end at the NBA level, but with Haliburton, the Pacers have an incredible young backcourt to build their team around for years to come. – RG

No. 6: Portland Trail Blazers | Record: 27-55   

The Blazers couldn’t overcome injuries to franchise player Damian Lillard. Portland ended the season with the worst adjusted Net Rating of -9.0 per Dunks and Threes. Lillard expects to return to form next season, and the franchise hopes their visit to the lottery is an aberration.

Jalen Duren, Freshman, Memphis

The 6’11’’ Duren has a solid body (250 lbs), and while he’s a project, he may not need long to emerge as a lob threat and high-level interior defender. Duren could be one of the better frontcourt players in the draft, with potential as a deadly pick-and-roll center. With Anfernee Simons (potential restricted free agent) and Lillard, Duren would be too much to pass up for the Blazers. – AP

 

No. 7: Sacramento Kings | Record: 30-52   

The Kings made a bold in-season deal, trading Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield to the Pacers for Sabonis. The team still has two dynamic guards in De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell. Unfortunately, Sabonis and Fox only played in 13 games together, posting a net rating of Net-Rating of -1.9, per NBA.com. That’s too small of a sample size. With a proper offseason to add complementary players, the Kings should be much better together.

Jeremy Sochan, Freshman, Baylor

Sochan should make an immediate impact defensively. He’s incredibly active and has the offensive potential as a playmaker in transition. The Kings need to improve on the defensive side of the ball, and Sochan is a positive step in that direction. –AE

No. 8: New Orleans Pelicans (via Los Angeles Lakers) | Record: 36-46

The Pelicans have the Lakers’ selection from the Anthony Davis trade. Now the Pelicans can add a high pick to their already intriguing core of Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum and a healthy Zion Williamson. If the lottery drops the pick to No. 11 or 12 (very unlikely but possible), it will convey instead to the Memphis Grizzlies.

Keegan Murray, Sophomore, Iowa

New Orleans doubles down on the defensive upside of their current roster by adding Murray. Iowa’s short March Madness run limited Murray’s ability to show his skills on a bigger stage, but he’s a capable player on both sides of the ball. With more help around him with the Pelicans, the ceiling is high for the versatile 6’8″ forward with a 40 percent three-point shot.. – RG

No. 9: San Antonio Spurs | Record: 34-48   

The Spurs finished the season well, threatening to make the playoffs through the play-in tournament. Still, the team needs to improve significantly around All-Star guard Dejounte Murray.

Benedict Mathurin, Freshman, Arizona

The Spurs aren’t far from competing at a higher level. The 6’6″ guard could provide value as one of the better secondary facilitators in the class while also being a blur in transition. Mathurin structures his offensive game around his quick first step, which would be perfect next to Murray. Mathurin could viably replace Derrick White (traded to the Boston Celtics at the deadline) as a strong-bodied guard. He’d be an excellent addition in San Antonio as the team continues to revamp its young roster. – AP

No. 10: Washington Wizards | Record: 35-47   

Bradley Beal’s season-ending wrist injury put a damper on what was once a strong start for the Wizards. Beal seems likely to return to the team (player option), but that remains a question mark. Regardless, a top-10 pick is welcome alongside the team’s already solid young core of Rui Hachimura, Corey Kispert, Deni Avdija and Daniel Gafford.

AJ Griffin, Freshman, Duke

Griffin won’t be 19-years old until after his name is called in the draft, but he was a talented scorer in his lone season with the Blue Devils. He missed two years of high school with knee and ankle injuries, but he’d be a welcome scorer to add to the Wizards’ talent base if his medicals check out. – AE

No. 11: New York Knicks | Record: 37-45   

The Knicks were disappointing this past season after a solid playoff showing in 2020-21. Most notably, the team’s defense dropped from third to 11th, per Basketball-Reference. While RJ Barrett took a step forward, Julius Randle couldn’t replicate his All-Star season. Regardless, the Knicks have a lot of work to do, starting with the draft.

Johnny Davis, Sophomore, Wisconsin

Davis should help the Knicks return to a defensive identity. He’s a bit raw offensively, but Davis would be a viable gamble as one of the better defensive prospects in the draft. – RG

No. 12: Oklahoma City Thunder (via Los Angles Clippers) | Record: 24-58   

Oklahoma City gets another bite at the apple. The team’s second lottery pick is from the Clippers via the Paul George trade.

Ochai Agbaji, Senior, Kansas

Ogbaji is the best player available, bringing some experience to one of the NBA’s younger rosters. He was one of the best collegiate players, helping his team win a national championship. Ogbaji should help both sides of the court, spacing the floor offensively and adding defensive flexibility. – AP

No. 13: Charlotte Hornets | Record: 43-39   

This season, the Hornets were one of the league’s most exciting teams, with a high-flying offense led by LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges. Defensively, the team struggled (rated 22nd). Charlotte fired head coach James Borrego. A new coach could sway the team’s style of play, but the significant hole was on the defensive side of the ball.

Mark Williams, Sophomore, Duke

Williams stood out with his 7’7″ wingspan and incredible interior presence during his two years with the Blue Devils. He should be able to slide ng right into the NBA and make an immediate impact. Offensively, Williams should pair well with Ball as a pick-and-roll threat. – AE

No. 14 Overall: Cleveland Cavaliers | Record: 44-38

The Cavaliers didn’t make the playoffs but took a significant step forward. Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen emerged as an All-Star point guard/center tandem. Evan Mobley (No. 3 in 2021) was one of the league’s best rookies. Kevin Love also thrived in his new role coming off the bench, ending the year as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate. This team has the potential to become a force to be reckoned with in the future.

TyTy Washington Jr., Freshman, Kentucky

Washington could be a solid addition with Collin Sexton coming off a knee injury (and a potential restricted free agent). Washington may not be a lead guard initially, but his combo skills make him an intriguing fit next to Garland. As he develops, he could prove a solid NBA point guard. – RG

Note: Ron Gutterman’s opinion is his own and does not reflect the Denver Nuggets, of which he is an employee.